“To me our knowledge of the way things work, in society or in nature, comes trailing clouds of vagueness. Vast ills have followed a belief in certainty, whether historical inevitability, grand diplomatic designs, or extreme views on economic policy. When developing policy with wide effects for an individual or society, caution is needed because we cannot predict the consequences” -K. Arrow
________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Certain in Uncertainty is a place for thoughtful, or at least attempts to be so, commentary and conversation about a wide variety of topics. The idea is to take logic and apply it to a variety of situations, not to be contradictory, but to shine light on another perspective that may help people better view the world (the pursuit of truth). Often the commentary will be centered around probabilistic and distributive thinking about the world. In an uncertain world this method of thought is the only thing I have a great deal of confidence (certainty) in.
One post that will reveal some of this framework is ‘Thinking like a gambler will improve your life.’
Common themes will be economics and finance sometime with a policy tilt other times with a trading tilt.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________
