Is it the level or change that matters?

What makes someone feel wealthy?  Is it the amount of money or is it the change in the money they have (the amount they have today vs. the amount they had yesterday)?  From my experience and observation of human beings it is almost always that latter.  People are happy when things are improving even if the status is still bad (poor people are happy when they become less poor) while the people are upset if things get worse even if things are still very good (rich are upset if they lose money but are still rich).   Although everyone is slightly different and the self reflexive historian may be an exemption I think this generally holds.  If the change is more important than the level (remember we’ve just experience a large negative wealth shock), which change is the one that matters?  Is it a draw down or level relative to last high, is it 12mth change, is is 3 mth change or something else?  This matters because once that change period has passed after a collapse then activity will resume based on the incremental (or next) change.  Of course it is not one single change and it is not all about the change the level matter greatly in the long run (and I think it impact the sensitivity to the change).  Anyway interesting stuff.  The IMF put out a wealth by country chart that gives an interesting picture.  I was surprised that the level was relatively similar across the countries although the asset composition was quite different.

2009.6.25.IMF.HouseholdWealth

2 Responses to “Is it the level or change that matters?”

  1. Christiane Says:

    What I find striking is the western nations in comparison with Japan. Do you have any idea what was going on with Japan, Paul? The western nations trended in the same general direction, while the Japanese trended down slightly…

  2. pwswartz Says:

    I’d guess I’d focus on the relative volatilities as I don’t read that much into the trends. Admittedly I’m not nearly as familiarly with Japan’s FOF as the US’s but I’d speculate that it is driven by where the risk falls. US HH hold more equities compared to their foreign counter parts; my impression is that JPN HHs tend to hold a significant portion of their wealth in deposits (while rates are low, the JPN stock market is well below where it was 20 years ago, it took a long time for HHs stock ownership to reengage after the 1929 crash in the US).

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